Friday, 22 November, 2019

A Three-phase Nuclear Agreement

By: Bobbie

The agreement between Iran and P5+1 is more like rumor flaying around the world but the truth is something different. Both sides have endeavored a lot to strike a deal but still due to some issues, there is still no deal. Some say that this round of talks would not get extended again.
Concerning the representation of numerous ideas and analyses about the possible deal, Western and Iranian experts and analysts are on par with each other but no one is still sure about the content. Therefore, everyone predicts the future of the deal and its content as well.
In this respect, I would like to write an article about the three parts of the agreement. (Excerpts are from an article published in Huffington Post)
According to Iranian sources, the agreement is divided into three phases. The initial phase — called “adoption of agreement” — takes places as the two sides agree on a final deal. This phase will kick in in the next few days — if a deal is reached.
The next phase — the operationalization of the agreement — will begin once the domestic political processes of various parties have conclusively approved the agreement. This phase has been added primarily as a result of the US Congress passing the Corker bill, in which the American legislature gave itself the right to review and vote on the nuclear deal.
The timing of the second phase is directly related to the duration of the Congressional review process. If the two sides come to an agreement prior to July 10, the review process is set at 30 calendar days, in addition to 22 calendar days for Congress to pass a resolution to accept or reject the deal and for Obama to use his veto, if need be. If the two sides fail to reach a deal by July 10, the Congressional review process increases to 60 calendar days.
While other states in the negotiations may also initiate some form of internal review and approval process, none of them are expected to take as long as the Congressional review. As such, the U.S. congress has significantly delayed the implementation of a presumptive deal.
Once the deal has survived the Congressional review — whether through a resolution of affirmation or the failure to pass a resolution of rejection — the Iranians will begin implementing the first steps of their commitments after the US side has provided iron clad guarantees that sanctions will be lifted. This is phase III. The initiation of the implementation of their end of the deal must then be verified by the IAEA, after which the US and its allies will begin relieving sanctions. It is at this point that the deal will be “signed,” enabling the Iranian demand for sanctions relief to occur upon signing of the deal to be upheld.
As a conclusion, regardless of these three phases, the content of the deal is not published yet; therefore, no one can claim about the real one. Both negotiators are working on drafting nuclear deal. The matter is that deal should be for the benefit of both groups. Both sides should make equal concessions. It is not acceptable that Iran would offer various concessions without wining any. The stable deal would be reached when both sides, especially western countries, avoid having excessive demands. As you know, mutual respect leads to a mutual and stable deal.

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