Wednesday, 24 July, 2019

Consequences of a possible attack on Iran

A volcano which recently erupt in Iceland, disrupted airlines in Europe. Millions of people suffered damage and financial losses. Maybe it was a sign that the things which may be appeared different though, including a military confrontation with Iran over Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, will not be inconclusive and without any harm. Such an attack certainly would have disastrous consequences and disrupt all political, military, and security equations in Middle East, the world’s most sensitive area.

Though this argument appears to be simple, it can be very dangerous. There is a large difference between “having all options on the table and giving a chance to diplomacy” on the one hand and “military action” on the other hand. Indeed, Failure to understand this

and insistence on the necessity of military action has strengthened the Iranian regime, reduced US influence in the nuclear negotiations and actually made any settlement on the nuclear problem impossible.

As Obama and his administration have noted, irresponsibly talking about the war actually will be beneficial for Iranian government and the Center for International Energy Studies has estimated that Iran will earn $ 54 billion oil revenues in this year despite the lowered exports of one-third.

These factors bolster the position of Iranian diplomats in the negotiations. A plenty of enriched uranium besides large oil revenues will provide the Iranian government with more opportunities to bargain. At the same time, abundant oil revenues prevents the expansion of sanctions and growing dissatisfaction with the Iranian government, and this in turn will make any agreement on Iranian nuclear program difficult.

Threatening Iran with a military attack will allow it to release itself from the pressure of public opinion and mobilize its people against the “invasion of the West”. As Christophe says: “The sanctions could make any talking on military strike against nuclear facilities unwise and irresponsible.”

However, if for any reason, Iran will be attacked, it could have irreparable consequences. Any military conflict with Iran will disrupt airlines over the Persian Gulf and will be followed by large financial losses.

The Iranian response may be in the form of rocket attacks on Israel, closing the Strait of Hormuz and attack on western companies’ oil facilities in Persian Gulf. Moreover, a possible Israeli attack on Iran will lead to country’s rapid withdrawal from NPT treaty.

Everyone knows that Israel desires to weaken the power of Iran and therefore it tries to fulfill its goal in any way. But it could be said that Israel’s desire to attack on Iran and bombing its nuclear facilities, such as those conducted in Iraq in 1981, is just a dream and Israel could never realize it. There are five reasons that any Israeli attack on Iran would fail. These reasons include:

1: Israelis cannot make use of the atomic bomb.

Israel refuses to conduct a nuclear attack on Iran; because it (Israel) is a small country and a large part of population are concentrated in a small range around Tel Aviv. That’s why this region is very vulnerable because more than seventy percent of the Israeli population and eighty percent of Israel infrastructures are located in this area.

2. An air attack on Iran is possible in theory, but impossible in practice.

One of the reasons for success of Israeli Air Force operations against Iraq was short distance between two countries which allowed the Israeli fighters to fly under the radar without refueling and to get their desired goals. However, the reality of long flight distance between Tehran and Tel Aviv has led to many technical problems on a possible air attack on Iran.

3. Iran’s missile power is stronger than Israel’s.

On the other hand, Iran has a variety of advanced missiles and other long-flying cruise missiles which put it in unique position towards Israel. Although these missiles are slower than Shahab missiles, but their flight path is not predictable.

4. Israel has not a military capability to surprise Iran.

Therefore, if Israel decides to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, it needs to conduct a massive air attack several times and it seems unlikely that such attacks to be successful, Because Iran enjoys a high defense power.

5. Israel cannot afford to attack Iran.

While Israel’s leaders have repeatedly threatened Tehran with military strike, but when the talks gets serious, they prefer to U.S and other allies undertake the task. Israeli experts to reinforce the idea that the military attack on Iran has little impact on the pursuit of its nuclear program, It is now clear that any successful effort to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons will be achieved through diplomatic negotiations. Those who encourage U.S government to adopt a military position should understand that their words only benefit Tehran.

By: Maedeh saeedi far

 

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