Monday, 18 December, 2017

Do Russian strikes lead to a political settlement of the Syrian crisis?

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By: Syed Ali Medjani

Before the Russian army between Syria we faced the situation below:

One of the biggest problems was the lack of access to a political agreement, despite two years of continuous negotiations (Geneva, 1 and 2), because of the intransigence of the rebel council not negotiate with the government led by President Bashar al-Assad, a position supported Erdogan’s Turkey until the last two weeks. The military arm of this position is the Free Syrian Army, made up of soldiers who are separated Assad supported by Turkey (which are still under the violent strikes of Russian)

In recent months, the US position and part of Europe on the political dialogue with the ruling regime, even on President Assad was a change in the official position, at least declaratory. This attitude was heard for the first time by Germany, and was echoed in the rest of Western countries.

On the Syrian political scene, there are a few weeks, President Assad said Syria had to keep their eyes closed on part of countries to better control the rest, which certainly means it could be one of two options or two of them:

The north is largely under Kurdish domination Islamic state, the opposition and the Free Syrian Army and the Salafist Al-Nusra.

It is to be noted here that two different social and cultural sectors prevailing in the country:

Phoenician areas in the north and the Mediterranean with commercial temperaments;

The identity of an island with tribal connections and spirit of agriculture in the current domain are joined by two other non-racial groups, Kurds and Alawites, basically four areas with a diverse cultural mix. So when someone like President Bashar al-Assad is now in the Phoenician culture, closes his eyes to a part of its territory, talking of course of the discontinuous cultural geography. Therefore, we can assume that the last speech of President Assad on the country’s division into two parts arising from the diversity of climate, anchored in people’s minds.

Negotiations between Hezbollah and Salafist about moving communities Shiite regions of Al-Fu’ah and Kafria with that of Zabadani, which a few months ago that lead to several cease-fire aimed moving heterogeneous communities designated areas that can be prescribed by a federal border following an agreement between the major powers. (This is how it breaks down [Eastern and Western Syria], [East and West and a Kurdish unit], [an eastern region and other western and Kurdish entity and a Another Alawite].

In the last two months of intense negotiations, announced that Russia is focusing on a new form of the Geneva talks. Consequently, representatives from all directions of the opposition, the countries of the region (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey) move to Moscow and the Russians have conducted high-level talks with the French and the Germans and the country was in contact with the US side. Russian officials had set up a series of meetings with their US counterparts.

The hypotheses for solving any crisis of this kind:

Extremist and rigid elements (as the rebels against President Assad, etc.) that can not or will not take part in any political process, should be removed.

It must bring all parties to the negotiating table. Impose new conditions becomes inevitable.

At least in the short term all parties should show flexibility in their traditional positions (the words of President Assad, the Turkish positions, US and European … etc.)

To guarantee full demarcation of new land because of the amount of minorities there exist cultural consistency, so it must be protected with air cover, ground forces, the specific areas that these borders are not violated.

The intervention of the great powers in Syria must be considered to ensure their own interests and legitimate presence in the region. So Russia for its naval presence in the Mediterranean, to legitimize its military presence in the Mediterranean. (Think the movement of Russia was unexpected despite the positions expressed by the American media, it is unlikely because the ally of the United States, Israel, has not shown a negative reaction.

The greatness of Russian strikes, despite official statements, aim the region of Latakia and Tartous where they installed their military bases and is the Alawite region.

Strikes of this magnitude show that other stakeholders in the Syrian sky should be aware of the details of the Russian movement (here the role of Israel or Germany is pointing, assuming the absence of direct contact between the Kremlin and the White House as the Cuban missile crisis).

For some countries in the region (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc.) agreement at a high level between the major powers can be expensive and they can disrupt the game, but special events such as the explosion in Ankara shows that their idea Fall of paradise is missed and must be satisfied with the agreement reached be the main actors.

Possibility

It seems that a subjective estimate, the Kremlin has achieved the multilateral or bilateral agreements in various ways. Russia has the largest operation abroad after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore, if this hypothesis is correct, it would not be surprising to stabilize the borders, keystrokes give way to the political process to reach a consensus on a new vision (the federalist system or decomposition) Syria .

The surprising points

There are three and a half years in weekly meetings for the exchange of news and analysis of Islamic awakening in the Middle East on the eve of the first demonstrations in Daraa, a report on a conference that Israel was reflected in the Arab media has astonished us, in which the researcher community in his speech on Syria had told the four components of the country, “a Kurdish region, an Alawite territory and two Sunni governments violent in the north and the Another more moderate in the south. ” Obviously, my first question was raised why the separation of the Sunni territory for two different areas? Perhaps in those circumstances none of us had the image of the Islamic caliphate and the appearance of Daech, and the separation between the two territories Sunnis did not seem real. This strange theory remained in the memory. Now, after three and a half is not unexpected that the Syrian chessboard such conditions would be imposed on Syria.

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